New model can predict marine heat waves, extreme ocean acidity months in advanceIn the 21st century, the Earth's oceans are growing warmer and m...
Published on by Water Network Research, Official research team of The Water Network
In the 21st century, the Earth's oceans are growing warmer and more acidic. This change is happening slowly over the long-term, but it can also cause short-term, local spikes.
These events are like the heat waves and or bad air quality days we experience here on land, they just happen underwater. And, if they are bad enough, they can devastate marine ecosystems.
INSTAAR Ph.D. student Samuel Mogen, INSTAAR director Nicole Lovenduski and collaborators take aim at these ocean extremes in a new paper published in Nature Geoscience. The researchers outline a method for forecasting both marine heat waves and acute ocean acidity. The new model is adept at forecasting these events up to a year in advance, with varying degrees of certainty based on the location.
Though Mogen and his collaborators are not the first to develop a predictive model for marine heat waves, they are the first to forecast ocean acidification. In the past, this research has been stymied by a lack of data—acidity is much harder to measure than temperature. While satellites can accurately measure sea surface temperature from above, acidity levels can only be measured by collecting physical water samples.
However, in recent years, scientists have been hard at work entering measurements from research cruises into large earth system models like the one Mogen used. Much of this research has been contributed by Mogen's collaborators at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder.
"We're getting to the point where we can use them to try and understand the evolution of carbon in the ocean in the short-term future," Mogen said.
Carbon is key for understanding ocean acidity, especially in the 21st century. As global emissions increase, more and more carbon dioxide leaches into seawater from the atmosphere, making it more acidic. Mogen's model predicts, for the first time, how large-scale climate patterns might impact this effect.
In one example, the researchers found that the recurring warming event in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean called an El Niño seems to lead to widespread ocean acidity. This effect is especially pronounced in the eastern pacific, off the coast of the Americas.
Attached link
https://phys.org/news/2024-11-marine-extreme-ocean-acidity-months.html?utm_source=flipboard&utm_content=topic/scienceTaxonomy
- Oceanographic Survey
- Ocean engineering
- Ocean acidification
- Oceanography