Year in Water, 2023

The morning before its fearsome winds and formidable rains wrecked the Pacific coast of southern Mexico, Hurricane Otis did not inspire unusual alarm.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center, in Miami, were tracking its path. In a 10 A.M. Central Time update on October 24, they sensed that Otis was becoming “better organized,” and though it was classified at the moment as a mere tropical storm, they noted the potential for “rapid intensification.” They expected hurricane status by the time it made landfall later that night or early the next morning. Nothing more than a run-of-the-mill late season cyclone.

In the afternoon Otis shifted gears, like a race car entering a straightaway. Drawing strength from warmer-than-normal coastal waters, Otis morphed within 12 hours from a tropical storm to a Category 5 juggernaut. Forecasters and authorities were caught off-guard. Only one storm in modern times – Hurricane Patricia, in 2015 – had strengthened so quickly. Forecasters changed their tone.

“A nightmare scenario is unfolding for southern Mexico this evening,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in a 10:00 P.M. update. It expected catastrophic storm surge, flooding, and damage around the resort area of Acapulco. That is exactly what happened once Otis hit, in the middle of the night, three and a half hours later.

Such events, while still shocking, are nonetheless more common these days. We live in a superlative era. Rainfall, snowpack, groundwater levels, temperatures, river flows – with greater frequency they are the highest, lowest, or driest. 2023, which is likely to be the hottest year ever recorded, was filled with notable examples.

• Wildfires in Canada consumed 18.5 million acres, by far the country’s biggest fire season in the last four decades. In the runner-up year, only 7.1 million acres burned. Smoke drifted across the continent, dulling the skies over Manhattan.
• Drought and low water levels in Gatun Lake prompted the Panama Canal Authority to severely restrict the number of ships that enter one of the world’s most important commercial waterways. In normal times about 36 per day transit the canal. By February, half that number will be allowed. The tightening has raised shipping costs and redirected global trade.
• In South America, Uruguay’s reservoirs shriveled and local authorities supplemented the capital’s dwindling drinking water supply with brackish water that exceeded health standards for salt. The Amazon River, also weakened by drought, dropped to a record low.
• In Libya, two large dams collapsed after severe rains in early September. The disaster, worsened by mismanagement, killed at least 4,000 people.

“Climate change is on track to exceed adaptive capacity in many parts of the world, particularly parts of the world where countries are already being hit hard and lack the resources to rebound or build greater resilience,” says Jonathan Overpeck of the University of Michigan. “Human-caused climate change, as well as the impacts of this change, appear to be accelerating, heightening the urgency for aggressive climate action.”

The causes of this Great Acceleration are not a mystery. A buildup of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere – due to burning fossil fuels, raising livestock, growing commodity crops, and clearing forests – is changing the world’s climate with severe consequences for water supply, ecosystems, and pollution.

In many ways, a new race has started. Can renewable energy accelerate at the same time that fossil fuel use and deforestation decelerate? Solar and wind power are growing apace, but from a small base. Fossil fuels still account for 80 percent of global energy use. Energy storage and electricity transmission will be needed to usher in the next phases of renewable growth.

A deteriorating climate is bad enough. But other decisions about where to build and how to use water are not helping. Bad policies and economic desperation – encouraging development in floodplains, for instance, or allowing unfettered extraction of water – make the situation worse. Vulnerability increases.

With advances in planetary monitoring and computer modeling, governments can no longer pretend that the future is unknowable.

Acknowledging the damage, governments are starting to change course. Water is one of the most common components of national climate adaptation plans. There is agreement that freshwater ecosystems need better care. One standout example: the world’s largest dam removal project is taking place in northern California and southern Oregon. Four large dams on the Klamath River are being demolished, a $450 million reclamation project to reopen salmon habitat that had been blocked for a century. The first dam was torn down this year.

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