China's Trade Off in Water Use

Water Availability Will Determine China's Future Energy Mix, an Interview with Li Junfeng, Director of the National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation

Li Junfeng, China's director of the National Centre for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation said that hydropower's 'golden age' in China has passed and future plans for this sector are unlikely to receive more attention.

Liu Hongqiao (LH): Why is water security more important than energysecurity?

Li Junfeng (LJF): China has been suffering from a nationwide shortage of energy and water resources. Water and energy security are both important and closely related. However, water security is more complex, and needs more attention. China's oil demand can be met by importing 60 per cent of its oil from other countries, but it wouldn't be possible to ensure freshwater supply in this way - it would be unsustainable if a highly populated, global manufacturing country like China imported 10 per cent of its waterdemand.

LH :China is currently undertaking an ambitious energy transformation plan. One of the most urgent tasks is to cut coal use by half by 2050. How will limited water resources shape thisreduction?

LJF: For China, whether it is in a "high coal demand era" or "low coal demand era", energy and water are inevitably linked. For future planning of the energy mix, water must be taken into consideration as an important factor. The current plan is to reduce coal use by 1 per cent per year, while increasing the use of alternative energy sources by the sameamount.

Coal mining, coal washing, coal plants, cooling andslagprocessing allrequire a lot of water. So people assume that cutting down on coal use will save huge amounts of water. However, we should bear in mind that some types of alternative energy also require large waterconsumption.

Takeshale gasas an example: China plans to reach 400 billion cubic metres of shale gas and natural gas production per annum by 2030. This extraction process would require at least 15 billion cubic metres of freshwater each year. Both gas-fired and coal-fired power plants are also big water consumers in China. Even wind and solar power are also waterconsumers.

LH :All energy needs water, but will the reduced share of coal in the energy mix result in less water consumption in energy production?

LFJ: If natural gas or nuclear were to replace coal, water consumption may remain the same or even increase because natural-gas extraction and the cooling of nuclear plants requires even more water than coal. Water availability is critical to China's current restructuring of its energy mix. Coal and coal-to-chemical industries rely on large amounts of water. Same for nuclear power - the huge demand for water for cooling significantly limits nuclear-power expansion, meaning coastal areas are favoured over inland areas. The sea will hardly dry out, but China's inland rivers and lakes have already been greatly depleted. Water availability will greatly impact the future selection of energy sources and theirlocations.

LH :There is growing evidence of the impact of climate change on water distribution across China. Will this influence future decision-making aboutenergy?

LJF: For decision-makers, geographical water availability limits the location of energy projects in the short term. New energy projects should clearly take into account future water demand both for operational and emergency needs. In the long run, energy distribution should consider the impact of climate change and changing climate patterns. According to recent studies by scientists from both China and abroad, the current pattern of "flood in the south and drought in the north"might gradually reverseand become "drought in the south and flood in the north". The process will be slow but will have a significant impact on China's energy planning for the next 20 to 30years.

A nuclear-power plant has an operational lifespan of around 60 years, long enough for it to be exposed to impacts from climate change. Current nuclear plants are all located in coastal provinces such as Guangdong. There are plans to locate some of the new plants to inland provinces likeAnhui and Jiangxi, with the hope of drawing water from the Yangtze River and Poyang Lake. But is there really enough water in the long term? I doubt it. We have already witnessed flow interruptions in the Yellow River as well as the depletion of PoyangLake.

LH : Under the 12th Five-Year Plan, quite a few large-scale hydropower projects were approved in the south-west. Where do you see hydropowerheading?

LJF: The past decade was the golden age for hydropower in China, but the next decade will see an end to this boom. In essence, China's hydropower development is"a spent arrow". Hydropower is no longer rapidly growing; 80 per cent of China's available hydropower resources have already been developed. China's hydropower capacity has reached 250 gigawatts and is expected to increase to 350 gigawatts in the future. Hydropower development should likely reach its final stage by 2025 and by 2030 China's massive hydropower construction should befinished.

LH :What about the planned large-scale hydropower expansion on transboundary rivers such as the Yarlong, Nu and Lancangrivers?

LJF: They are very unlikely to be developed. Many of these projects areproposed to be builtin areas with extremely complex geological conditions, some even in extremely unstable zones withhigh risk of earthquakes. To build hydropower in those areas requires great care. As I said, the golden age for hydropower has passed. From a political perspective, the high-level decision-makers are also more and more aware of the importance of environmental protection. Former premier Wen Jiabao approved far fewer hydropower plants during his second term than his first term. Change is slow, but it ishappening.

Source: Eco-Business

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• Energy
• Hydropower
• Water Management