Climate Change to Reduce Water in California
Published on by Water Network Research, Official research team of The Water Network in Academic
New Study by UC Irvine'sMichael GouldenSuggests Rising Global Temperatures Could Cut into California's Water Supply by Altering High-altitude Vegetation
Climate change has the potential to reduce surface-water supply by expanding the activity, density, or coverage of upland vegetation, although the likelihood and severity of this effect are poorly known.
They quantified the extent to which vegetation and evapotranspiration (ET) are presently cold-limited in California's upper Kings River basin and used a space-for-time substitution to calculate the sensitivity of riverflow to vegetation expansion.
They found that runoff is highly sensitive to vegetation migration; warming projected for 2100 could increase average basin-wide ET by 28% and decrease riverflow by 26%. Kings River basin ET currently peaks at midelevation and declines at higher elevation, creating a cold-limited zone above 2,400 m that is disproportionately important for runoff generation.
Climate projections for 2085-2100 indicate as much as 4.1 °C warming in California's Sierra Nevada, which would expand high rates of ET 700-m upslope if vegetation maintains its current correlation with temperature.
Moreover, they observed that the relationship between basin-wide ET and temperature is similar across the entire western slope of California's Sierra Nevada, implying that the risk of increasing montane ET with warming is widespread.
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