Climate Scientists Study the Odds of a Megadrought

To help untangle fact from speculation, Cornell climate scientists and their colleagues have developed a “robust null hypothesis” to assess the odds of a megadrought – one that lasts more than 30 years – occurring in the western and southwestern United States.

“We’re establishing a baseline. We’re looking for the normal pulse of a megadrought. How often do they occur? Do they happen more in periods of climate change?” asks Toby Ault, assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences. “We’re examining things happening over the last 1,200 years, including the period known as the ‘Medieval Climate Anomaly’ from about 800 to 1300 A.D., and we’re applying that understanding to see what could happen in the next 100 years.”

Representative image, source: Pexels

In the southwestern United States, water management is a top concern. If a megadrought occurs, large-scale water management decisions affecting millions of Americans must be made to protect agriculture, the ecosystem and potable water systems, said Ault. Thus, understanding the odds of a widespread megadrought becomes important for planning purposes.

To help understand the concept of a robust null hypothesis, think of tossing a coin. “It lands either heads or tails. Even though the toss is random, over several tries you can still get long runs of heads, heads, heads, heads, heads,” said Ault. If this happens, it can fool you into thinking that other forces are in play and that it is more than just the randomness of the coin toss, he said: “We needed to rule out this possibility as an explanation for megadroughts in the past.”

Using tree ring and other physical evidence, it is known that the American Southwest saw five megadroughts from 800 to 1300 A.D., a period almost as warm as it is today, though Ault explained that the causes were different, such as solar activity.

But scientists want to know if an actively warming world can stimulate a megadrought.

“With a robust null hypothesis, we have a better understanding of how megadroughts are part of the natural variability and what drives the odds of its occurrence,” Ault said. “It’s surprising that even with this simple statistical model, we can get megadroughts that are as prolonged, as severe and as widespread as the worst droughts of the last 1,200 years in the west.”

However, the simple model does not generate clusters of megadroughts. Said Ault: “Like those that occurred during the medieval period, those events were likely to have been caused by something other than chance alone.”

Co-authors of the paper, “A Robust Null Hypothesis for the Potential Causes of Megadrought in Western North America,” are Carlos Corrillo, Cornell postdoctoral researcher; Samantha Stevenson, University of California, Santa Barbara; Scott St. George, University of Minnesota; Jason Smerdon and Benjamin Cook, Columbia University; Sloan Coats, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado; and Justin Mankin, Dartmouth College. Funding was provided by National Science Foundation.

Source: Cornell University

Read and download ' A Robust Null Hypothesis for the Potential Causes of Megadrought in Western North America' HERE

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• Resource Management
• Drought
• Climate Change
• Sustainable Water Resource Management
• Climate Change Adaptation
• Climate Change Resilience
• Water Resource Management
• Drought-Resistant Technology
• Climate Protection

2 Comments

1. Obviously, we can not stop the nature of cyclical events.
   Yes.We changed the water cycle.Only the return to nature of its natural elements can stop climate change.
   And it is possible.If you start today.See my Hypothesis.

   1 Comment reply

   1. We are so close in our analysis. The only singular item is using the word STOP. We already know man could not possibly cause the events happening at this time. This was confirmed when the Climate hoax was exposed.  The scientists are now focusing on understanding natural events and how best to survive in them. In essence we are learning how to expand our parameters. 3 main natural events of concern at this time.  #1. every 100,000 years the earth goes through an in hale "change" and exhale prosperous life cycle.  This is called the O2/CO2 equilibrium cycle. Nutrients when in the oceans only had no need for this cycle. But plants and animals changed that.  Too many animals respiring and trees using up their soil nutrients. Natures way of making sure survival of the fittest.  We use the term "What does not kill you, makes you stronger".  Not just a saying. A cyclical biological function.  #2. Sun spot cycles. We can see and predict the 11/22 year cycle. But every 100,000 years a mega cycle if you will occurs. by pure chance we are either hit by a strong CME or just a close call.  Regardless of severity the sun goes through some of its own changes. We do not understand why but neutrinos attain mass. Heats up our core, lava easier to push up causing more earth quakes, volcanic eruptions, causing more volcanic winter and so on.  #3 is our binary star 3600 year orbit.  All 3 events happening at the same time and you can see how easily discovering the Climate hoax was.  Getting knocked down by nature is not the problem. How you prepare now to get yourself back up and continue with your life is the problem.  You might want to ask the globalists to return the $30 trillion  they stole for "Climate Change" 

2. Obviously we can not stop natures cyclical events.  But in localized areas where mankind created the drought a simple reverse of past actions will allow nature to return to its natural biological functions.  We have already had so many successes at restoring soil fertility and recreating ideal growing conditions just by making and using compost. It holds the moisture and as the crops and trees respire they create a humid environment. 40 years of success has allowed us to take the next step.  Growing food in the hottest places in the world. The pilot program was in Kuwait. After Saddam set more than 700 oil wells on fire he had unintentionally fertilized the desert. The burnt oil had the carbon and trace elements. Just needed heat tolerant microbes and water. Tomatoes were the crop of choice. A bumper crop was recorded. No flavor because ZERO fertilizers were used. But the Archaea microbes natural working temperature is 185 F.  Currently there are 4 projects underway. The first awaiting contracts will be in the UAE.  Gobi, Sahara, and Australia plans have been completed. The MEGA Droughts mentioned will only happen if we go out of our way to make sure they happen.  If you wish to write your study on current technology and how nature controls everything just ask. Since the Climate Hoax has been exposed real scientist are solving problems that really do exist.  Old school scientists are always 2 steps ahead of agenda driven financed research.