Large Dams Not Worth the Cost
Published on by Water Network Research, Official research team of The Water Network in Social
World's Leading Authority on the Impact of Dams on Poor People Believes Dams Seem to be CausingSocial and Environmental Damage
A frequent consultant on large dam projects, Mr. Scudder held out hope through most of his 58-year career that the poverty relief delivered by a properly constructed and managed dam would outweigh the social and environmental damage it caused.
Now, at age 84, he has concluded that large dams not only aren't worth their cost, but that many currently under construction "will have disastrous environmental and socio-economic consequences," as he wrote in a recent email.
Mr. Scudder, an emeritus anthropology professor at the California Institute of Technology, describes his disillusionment with dams as gradual.
He was a dam proponent when he began his first research project in 1956, documenting the impact of forced resettlement on 57,000Tongapeople in the Gwembe Valley of present-day Zambia and Zimbabwe. Construction of the Kariba Dam, which relied on what was then the largest loan in the World Bank's history, required the Tonga to move from their ancestral homes along the Zambezi River to infertile land downstream. Mr. Scudder has been tracking their disintegration ever since.
Once cohesive and self-sufficient, the Tonga are troubled by intermittent hunger, rampant alcoholism and astronomical unemployment.
Desperate for income, some have resorted to illegal drug cultivation and smuggling, elephant poaching, pimping and prostitution. Villagers still lack electricity.
Mr. Scudder's most recent stint as a consultant, on the Nam Theun 2 Dam in Laos, delivered his final disappointment. He and two fellow advisers supported the project because it required the dam's funders to carry out programs that would leave people displaced by the dam in better shape than before the project started. But the dam was finished in 2010, and the programs' goals remain unmet.
DAMS typically consume large chunks of developing countries' financial resources, as dam planners underestimate the impact of inflation and currency depreciation. Many of the funds that support large dams arrive as loans to the host countries, and must eventually be paid off in hard currency. But most dam revenue comes from electricity sales in local currencies. When local currencies fall against the dollar, as often happens, the burden of those loans grows.
One reason this dynamic has been overlooked is that earlier studies evaluated dams' economic performance by considering whether international lenders like the World Bank recovered their loans — and in most cases, they did. But the economic impact on host countries was often debilitating.
Dam projects are so huge that beginning in the 1980s, dam overruns became major components of debt crises in Turkey, Brazil, Mexico and the former Yugoslavia. "For many countries, the national economy is so fragile that the debt from just one mega-dam can completely negatively affect the national economy," Mr. Flyvbjerg, the study's lead investigator, told me.
To underline its point, the study singles out the massive Diamer-Bhasha Dam, now under construction in Pakistan across the Indus River.
It is projected to cost $12.7 billion (in 2008 dollars) and finish construction by 2021. But the study suggests that it won't be completed until 2027, by which time it could cost $35 billion (again, in 2008 dollars) — a quarter of Pakistan's gross domestic product that year.
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