New Global Study Projects Rapid Deterioration in Water Quality

The murky future of global water quality New global study projects rapid deterioration in water quality

Even using the most optimistic projections, the world is on a path toward rapidly deteriorating water quality levels inmany countries, according to a new study conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute andVeolia.

The study uses robust mathematical modeling to contrast specific biophysical water quality modeling on aglobal scale with three global economic projections, two sets of climate change projections and projected futureagricultural production activities.

Water quality deterioration is projected to rapidly increase over the nextseveral decades which, in turn, will increase risks to human health, economic development and ecosystems.

The findings in this study serve as a call to action to contain water pollution to ensure that future generations can enjoythe many benefits associated with clean water.

Highlights

• Rapid water quality deterioration is projected through 2050 in this first-of-its-kind global study linking economic and biophysical water quality modeling by IFPRI and Veolia.

• Today, human activities contribute significant amounts of Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Nitrogen and Phosphorus (P), which make their way into water bodies around the world. Globally, 1 in 8 people are at high risk of water pollution from BOD; 1 in 6 people are at high risk of N pollution and 1 in 4 people are at high risk of P pollution. Most of these people live in developing countries in Asia.

• Increased global discharge of BOD, N, and P is projected for 2050 under all three economic growth scenarios (socio-economic models include "optimistic," "medium" and "pessimistic" growth projections) and two climate change scenarios. Under all scenarios, more people will be exposed to risks from deteriorated water quality.

• By 2050, a drier climate change scenario coupled with medium levels of income and population growth projects that 1 in 3 people will be at high risk of nitrogen pollution (2.6 billion people or an increase of 172%); 1 in 3 people will be high risk of phosphorous pollution (2.9 billion people or an increase of 129%); and 1 in 5 people will be at high risk of water pollution from BOD (1.6 billion people or an increase of 144%).

• Using the same data under a wetter climate change scenario produces similar results, with 1 in 4 people at high risk of nitrogen pollution, 1 in 3 people at high risk of phosphorous pollution, and 1 in 6 people at high risk of water pollution from BOD

• In all cases, the most rapid increases in exposure to pollutants will occur in low- and lower-middle income countries due to higher population and economic growth in these countries.

• Solutions exist that can improve both social and ecological resilience under intensified efforts to practice sustainable agricultural methods including enhanced nutrient use efficiency, phased out fertilizer subsidies, notill or reduced tillage and other conservation measures, and closing the nutrient cycle.

• Sustainable solutions also exist for cities and industry, including more aggressive investment in wastewater treatment (over improvements already assumed in this study), improved home design to minimize pollution, and increased recycling and reuse.

• Other solutions can reduce pollution across sectors, such as water quality trading, increased implementation of the polluter-pays-principle, enhanced monitoring of both point and non-point sources and enforcement of existing regulations on water pollution.

Source: VeoliaNorthAmerica

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• Water Quality
• Water Supply