No Cod on Cape Cod

Like Much About Cod, the Answer Lies in Both Environmental Change and Overfishing

Our cod crisis has become a sad cliche, ironic enough to catch the eye of the national media, and the truth does indeed hurt. Just ask Chatham and Harwich fishermen, who fished in what was once one of the top cod ports in the country but now catch mostly skates and dogfish and very little cod.

Codfish once supported fleets of 400 schooners each in Gloucester and New Bedford, and as many as 100 schooners crowded into Provincetown Harbor in the 1800s, many headed to rich Canadian fishing grounds and Georges Bank. Cod are wrapped up in the history of the state and the growth of our nation, and symbolic cod hang in both the main courtroom of the Barnstable Superior Court and in the state House of Representatives.

But now, it's largely Iceland, Canada and the Pacific that put cod on restaurant menus and our tables at home. And many experts now worry that a fish, whose fortunes are so closely aligned with our own growth as a country, could now be going extinct. There's an emotional connection, and contemplating the last cod, is like letting the last bald eagle die.

"I think we have all heard people's concerns that we have reached the point of no return," said Steve Cadrin, an associate professor at the University of Massachusetts School for Marine Science and Technology in Dartmouth.

But scientists, managers and environmentalists downplay the rumors of an Endangered Species petition or possible extinction, and believe that fisheries managers are now finally taking the first real step on what could be a very long road to rebuilding cod.

There was a decidedly gloomy fatalism in the air at the New England Fishery Management Council meeting in Hyannis earlier this month. Fishermen, who had been landing as much as 6,000 metric tons a year for the past decade lined up to ask that the council consider a 514 metric ton annual quota instead of the recommended 200 metric ton limit.

Either way, they were no longer going to be in the business of catching cod. This was a de facto fishing moratorium that could stretch on for many years to come.

"Even 500 metric tons is essentially closing the targeted cod fishery," said Cadrin.

After falling off a cliff in 1988, Gulf of Maine cod seemed to be turning around in the early years of this century. But, since 2006, it's been all downhill, with the amount of spawning cod in the Gulf of Maine now only 3 percent to 4 percent of what scientists believe constitutes a healthy population — the lowest population levels ever. Georges Bank cod is not much better, at only 8 percent of a healthy stock, as of the last assessment a few years ago.

Still, Cadrin, like most fisheries scientists, environmentalists and others in fisheries management do not believe that we are witnessing the extinction of this iconic fish.

"I don't think that that is likely," said Andrew Pershing, chief scientific officer for the Gulf of Maine Research Institute.

It's hard to catch every last fish, Pershing said. The worst-case scenario, he said, is something like the Newfoundland experience where environmental changes combined with poor scientific advice and overfishing drove the cod population down to the level that it hasn't shown any signs of life until recently, despite a two-decade fishing moratorium.

"That's the worst case," Pershing said. "They come back, but it takes a long time."

The Newfoundland example is the exception in the history of fisheries management and not the rule, said Jake Kritzer, on the staff of the Environmental Defense Fund, an environmental policy group. "When fisheries reduce fishing mortality substantially, things turn around," said Kritzer. He pointed to striped bass as one prominent example of a species that has recovered to record high population levels following a long fishing moratorium and severely restricted landings.

Kritzer and others argue that the New England Fisheries Management Council and the National Marine Fisheries Service have consistently crafted plans that sought to spare fishermen economic pain by allowing higher levels of fishing on cod than was recommended by scientists. NMFS fisheries biologist Mike Palmer said that even the lowest quota imposed by fishery managers over the past 20 years was still double the recommendations.

"We have never stopped overfishing on cod since I first became involved in 1989," said Peter Shelley, senior counsel at the Conservation Law Foundation. "The managers have always allowed fishermen to catch too many fish and have ignored the warning flags scientists have been flying at least since 2008 that they were overestimating the biomass and that caution should be taken."

More landings cuts and deeper ones sounds like a return to the same failed strategy, but, fishery scientists, and others argue that, for the first time in more than 20 years, the annual quota for Gulf of Maine cod will likely be below the amount scientists think will rebuild the stock. Kritzer said the combination of the 77 percent cut in cod quota that took effect last year, and the proposed 200 metric ton quota for the next fishing year add up to a 90 percent drop in allowable landings.

If that happens and the stock assessment models are correct, Palmer believes Gulf of Maine cod could rebuild within 10 years. That would mean an increase from less than 5,000 metric tons of spawning fish to between 47,000 and 70,000 metric tons and a commercial harvest of as much as 11,000 metric tons.

Keeping total landings to somewhere between 200 and 500 metric tons will not be easy. With harvest levels that low, monitoring is crucial to keep fishermen from throwing dead cod back to prevent triggering a closure by using up the quota, said Shelley. Both NMFS and the industry have said they don't have the money to support an expanded fishery observer program that would give them a better idea of how much is being caught and how much discarded.

Electronic monitoring, using video cameras to record the catch and discards, has not been been approved by NMFS for widespread use despite over a decade of testing.

"Having a 200 metric ton limit without monitors is like signing a death warrant for cod," Shelley said.

But others worry that the fish population models are not taking into account other factors that may be inhibiting cod rebuilding. Climate change and predation by seals, dogfish and other predators are not factored in because there is very little research that produces hard numbers.

"We certainly need to get a better handle of the level of natural mortality," said Palmer, noting that they are using estimates in their stock assessment models.

"Too many dogfish, too many seals, the water is too warm," said Kritzer. "It's not a good world out there for cod."

In a June 2013 report on the future of Gulf of Maine Cod, the Gulf of Maine Research Institute made the case that cod have more complicated and diverse life histories than what can be fed into an assessment models.

For instance, the report identified subgroups of cod that remained largely in shallow inshore kelp beds, also in the center of the Gulf of Maine and on Cashes Ledge. These fish largely fell within protected areas, but were less fecund than their cousins who roamed over wider areas and were caught. The report posited that closed areas might be protecting fish that produce fewer offspring, meaning less fish than predicted survive to be counted, spawn or be caught.

They argued that environmental effects are even greater on a smaller population than one that is robust and has enough spawners to overcome adverse conditions. They advocated more research and that these effects be included in management decisions.

But others said that the environmental, habitat, and predator research, while worthwhile, was complex, would take time and action is needed now.

"Each one of the environmental theories we chased down, we'd run into a brick wall," Palmer said. "There is a value in bringing them in, but how best to do that, and how much weight to give that is a very difficult question to tease out."

One mystery Palmer would like to solve is why Gulf of Maine cod's hatchlings are not surviving their first year, the important transition from larvae to fish that forms the basis of population growth.

Source: Cape Cod Times

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