Up to 13 Mil Americans Are at Risk of Being Washed Away

New research highlights a threatened coastal region where attitudes capture the nuances of the climate change debate

Tyrrell County sits just inland from North Carolina’s Outer Banks barrier islands. With 3,600 people living and farming along 400 square miles, it’s an ecologically rich enclave. It also ranks No. 1 among 319 U.S. coastal counties facing long-term risk from rising seas. By 2100, according to a new study, 94 percent of Tyrrell's future population may be at risk from encroaching seawater.

The swelling ocean may threaten the homes of up to 13.1 million coast-dwelling Americans by the end of this century, according to the study published today in the journal  Nature Climate Change . Led by Mathew Hauer, a doctoral candidate at the University of Georgia, the research is novel because it combines population projections with sea-level rise projections. 

Tyrrell County leads the country only by percentage of its population at risk. The largest absolute numbers of people at risk are in Miami-Dade and Broward counties in Florida. These two areas would make up 25 percent of all people impacted nationally—or more than 3.5 million—if waters rise by 6 feet, which is the most extreme scenario the study's authors anticipated. That threat has made the southern Florida climate story the center of much attention in recent years. More than 100,000 people could be displaced in each of 31 counties in the 6-foot rise scenario. 

But it’s in Tyrrell, and neighboring Hyde and Dare counties, where you can squint and see the future of the American climate change debate, which may turn on questions of economic influence as much as environmental risk.

Land, water, and weather are unified in Tyrrell. There are four black bears for every man, woman, and child, said county manager David Clegg. Much of the county is reclaimed swamp. It's the kind of place, Clegg said, where people commonly chat about things like “what’s going on with the tide, where the bears are, how many eagles did you see this weekend?”

The environment has been a labor of love ever since Tyrrell was founded in 1729. The county's land is now planted with potatoes, soybeans, and grain, but the rate of environmental change, and how people respond, will determine how resilient the lifestyle and economy are. “Issues surrounding livability in a place that’s so ecologically delicate—climate change fits in with that clearly,” Clegg said.

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Taxonomy

• Environment
• Climate Change
• Sea Level Rise Risk Perception
• Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Assesment