Extreme Weather Is Outpacing Even The Worst-Case Scenarios Of Our Forecasting Models
Published on by Kevin Westerling, Chief Editor at Water Online
Attached link
https://www.wateronline.com/doc/extreme-weather-is-outpacing-even-the-worst-case-scenarios-of-our-forecasting-models-0001Taxonomy
- Stormwater Management
- Stormwater
- Climate Change Resilience
- Infrastructure
- Storm Water Management
- Resilient City
- Weather
- Residential Infrastructure
- Extreme Events
1 Comment
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It's basic statistics - the longer we collect data, the more likely we are to break records. For example, if you collect data for 10-years, the law of probability indicates that extreme events are not likely (although possible). However, collect data for 100+ year and the law of probability of extreme events increases significantly. Over a reasonable time frame (say 20 years), on average, the increase in extreme events is not beyond what you would expect with increased data recording. Is just not there. The article also highlights another fact - All models are wrong, some are useful (George Box).