Tensions with China-Pakistan can derail fragile water treaties, but India won't talk about it

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Tensions with China-Pakistan can derail fragile water treaties, but India won't talk about it

Amidst all the discussion and debate on the future trajectory of India's neighbourhood foreign policy there is a glaring paucity of inclusion on the regions shared water which will prove detrimental in the future. It is very important in the long term that we include water security in the larger conversation. 

As India’s neighbourhood goes through a turmoil, with underlying fault lines exposed by the coronavirus pandemic and a deepening economic crisis, there is robust debate on the trajectory of India and its neighbourhood in the context of foreign and security policy. However, there is a glaring paucity of debate on how the ongoing crises, including the stand-off at the Line of Actual Control with China, might shape and influence the trajectory of South Asia’s transboundary water security.

It is no secret that water policies in South Asia receive less attention unless a natural disaster occurs or when we beat the drums of ‘water wars’ every now and again. Yet, water policies on shared rivers have far-reaching consequences for India and the entire neighbourhood. As populations grow, the climate becomes increasingly erratic and demand for water expands, the stress on shared waterways will prove even more contentious.

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Extending the scope of mistrust

Without strong bilateral and multilateral institutions to manage, the shared waterways and river systems are often subject to the vagaries and uncertainties of geopolitics. From the Indus River Basin to the interconnected Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) River Basin, how India and its neighbours successfully collaborate and cooperate is critical to the region’s future and people that account for close to 15 per cent of the world’s population. Working together to better manage shared resources, natural habitats and waterways, as well as joint action on climate research, could yield important dividends beyond immediate development benefits, including long-term peace, analyses a 2017 paper by the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).

The absence of strong policies, treaties and agreements, opens the door for mistrust and tension to spill over in other spheres. Following the 2017 Doklam crisis, China withheld monsoon data, critical for flood management in northeast India, thereby violating terms of a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). Later in 2019, following the Pulwama attacks, India’s plan to divert water flowing into Pakistan gained momentum. Neither of these instances had anything to do with the shared waters or existing agreements, yet they had detrimental effects on the resource as well as the potential for furthering dialogue on joint management or cooperation.

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3 Comments

  1. River is a very complex subject. Let me talk in brief.

    Indus Water Treaty as prepare by World Bank and ratified by both country India and Pakistan, has many wisdom and many shortcoming.  Being involved in executing few hydroelectric projects in J&k and naturally to deal with both Indian Indus Commission and Pakistan Indus Commission,  realised that some vagueness and weakness has rather helped to take share of water though with prolonged fight in World Bank dispute resolution process and also through International Court Geneva. Being a downstream and intermediate stream country for major tributaries we have some disadvantages. Whatever it may be I do not think a better treaty is possible at today.

    Regarding India China common river on which worked again due to some natural disaster and planning for project, do not want to comment,

    Regarding Nepal and Bhutan issues are different.

    I will only like to state that International river disputes resolution and sharing has been only successful where the countries have already taken their major shares by some means. It is more a regularising the uses. Large quantity of hydrological and meteorological date for say  50 years continuously are an important ingredient.

    First of all why do we not start solving the interstate dispute on rivers in our country, develop some expertise and then look internationally?

     

    1 Comment reply

    1. I agree that rivers are a complex subject and need nuanced solutions but the less we talk about it in South Asia the more detrimental it is in the long run for India and the region. We cannot solve our internal disputes in isolation, it cannot be one or the other, both can be done in parallel. I don't agree that a better treaty is not possible from a scientific perspective, though from a political one you are likely to be right. Lastly, I have studied many treaties and agreements around the world and travelled around several basins and disagree that it is only about use. There are many factors at play. Happy to offer my expertise and knowledge gained from this for any project you have going forward if of interest. Cheers. 

  2. India is at a stronger position with regard to water security.  This article is  backing those anti indian rhetorics who write such things without any basis.  print.in is well known for its anti indian articles and this article is one among them.  I would suggest the author Ambika to read the indus water treaty and other treaties signed by India before penning such anti indian articles in future.